Deutsche Bank has just issued a
report saying Greece should earn €214bn from Natural Gas by 2020, based
on the reserves hidden in the Mediterranean Basin south of Crete. But
Citicorp says the Greeks will leave the eurozone long before that.
Until recently, it was EU policy to downplay
the size of Greek energy reserves, while the Americans were bigging up
the energy potential and promoting the Israel-Cyprus-Greece consortium
idea for exploration. But now the situation has changed: it is no longer
the EU buying, but Merkel selling.
Hence the DB document suddenly coming out with stuff like this:
‘Such a reserve would be equivalent to 107% of Greek GDP by 2020.’
The evidence suggests that this is the start
of a planned Berlin spin operation to transform Greece from Black Hole
to Great Investment in the eyes of the German People by Autumn 2013.
That’s when Frau Doktor Merkel faces the electorate again.
“There’ll be a lot more like this,” says a
source close to the Government in Berlin. “The idea is to use every
means at their disposal to suggest that Greece really will be able to
function without help after 2020.”
A Frankfurt-based source agrees. “This is
exactly what we’d expect Merkel to do. But in fact what she has done is
put Germany into a position where it will end up in financial ruin.”
Greek media are also suspicious of the sums
being talked about. Kathimerini recently commented that ‘Estimates alone
mean nothing, until Greece proceeds with the exploration and
identification of clear and detailed geological systems that meet the
requirements for the generation and accumulation of oil.’ And if Athens
is having its infrastructure sold off, how will its People benefit from
the gas finds even if they’re real?
Respected website keeptalkinggreece
is similarly sceptical: ‘the scale and valuation figures mentioned are
tenuous, and one should hold these estimates at a considerable arm’s
length.’ A trusted Slog source in Greece remarks, “If [the Greeks]
survive the next 8-10 years, they will live happily ever after. Don’t
ask me what they will eat until 2020.”
It does sound like a question of having the
energy under one’s feet, but not having the energy to dig it up. But
Citicorp says the assumption of a Greek presence in the eurozone by 2020
is a fantasy anyway. Italy, Spain and Greece will need debt
restructures next year, says Michael Saunders, Citi’s chief European
economist. In a secret report nevertheless leaked to the media
yesterday, the banking group said it expects Greece’s exit from the
eurozone probably before the end of 2013.
By then, of course, Geli the German will have been re-elected. If things stay on an even keel elsewhere.
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