Is it getting better, or will the country go bust? The immediate future
of Greece very much depends on the latest assessment by the so-called
troika. But the group's investigation is taking an unusually long time.
The troika - a joint team of controllers with members of the European
Union , the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) - is currently visiting Athens for a closer look at the
severity of the euro crisis and how well Greece has been managing so
far.
Their report will have a direct effect on the decision for further financial aid - and its current delay gives room for much speculation. Still, as spokesman of the European Commission, Simon O'Connor deflects any questions from journalists: "I have no particular comment to make or any details to share with you at this stage as long as those talks are going. Once an agreement is reached, I will able to say more."
The troika is currently in Athens evaluating the country's progress
With an answer like this, O'Connor is not the exception, but the
rule: be it EU representatives in Brussels or leading politicians across
the Union, when asked about the troika, none have much to say. Whenever
there are questions about Greece, they simply say that all depends on
the troika's report from Athens. But so far, that report has yet to make
an appearance.
At first, the final version of the report was to have been published at the beginning of October - until it was postponed. Now, the beginning of November is being considered as the next possible date.
Until then, just as during previous inspection visits, the controllers appear determined to remain silent. As a result, the international public is increasingly questioning the reasons for the delay.
One team, many opinions
As head of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank, Daniel Gros expects large parts of the report to be a sober assessment of the facts. "But then it's all about drawing the conclusions, writing it all down from beginning to end. And this does take a while, since it's not really clear what's really wanted," he said.
This means that there's a chance the troika might be internally
divided. On the outside they may give the appearance of a team, but
according to media reports a quarrel has erupted about what path to
choose. After all, the EU, ECB and IMF are three separate institutions
with differing agendas.
The IMF, especially, tends to issue harsher verdicts on Greece, as its members - such as some emerging economies or the US - have been eyeing the eurozone with increasing criticism.
Besides, the IMF must defend its reputation as a strict consultant that helps states to straighten out their finances. And with every submitted troika report that is proved wrong, the institution is likely to weaken its credibility.
Waiting out the US elections?
There might, however, yet be another overarching political reason for the delay, according to Jürgen Matthes of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research.
"One assumption out there, which I believe to be politically credible, is that [the troika] wants to wait for the US election to take place," he said. "After all, we've seen how critically the eurozone developments have been watched in the US, and how worried the Obama administration has been that the euro crisis might have negative repercussions for the US economy, eventually costing Obama his re-election."
Speculations about the delayed troika report were also made recently by the Greek government. In a statement not linked with the troika, it announced that Athens would have another two years for reaching its savings target - a deal that the IMF promptly denied.
The financial world, meanwhile, has been watching the bargaining
happening in Greece with increasing nervousness. Banks and businesses
want facts, rather than speculation and irritating statements.
After all, the troika's final report will play an important part when it comes to deciding whether Greece is to receive the next aid package of over 31 billion euros ($40 billion) from its international lenders. Without it, the country would be facing bankruptcy, which, in turn, would drag the financial markets down and increase pressure on the eurozone as a whole.
More action necessary
That's why Gros believes Greece won't be left out in the cold, adding that he thinks everyone involved will claim to have two loyalties: backing stricter measures against Athens, but at the same time appreciating the efforts the country has already accomplished. "It doesn't make sense to let [Greece] perish now."
Whatever happens, it seems certain that the troika report will conclude that more is still necessary, according to experts. Based on all that is known so far, Greece is, after all, still a long way from meeting the financial targets set as a requirement by its international lenders.
Posted by DW
http://www.dw.de/rumors-abound-over-delayed-troika-report/a-16336624
Their report will have a direct effect on the decision for further financial aid - and its current delay gives room for much speculation. Still, as spokesman of the European Commission, Simon O'Connor deflects any questions from journalists: "I have no particular comment to make or any details to share with you at this stage as long as those talks are going. Once an agreement is reached, I will able to say more."
The troika is currently in Athens evaluating the country's progress
At first, the final version of the report was to have been published at the beginning of October - until it was postponed. Now, the beginning of November is being considered as the next possible date.
Until then, just as during previous inspection visits, the controllers appear determined to remain silent. As a result, the international public is increasingly questioning the reasons for the delay.
One team, many opinions
As head of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank, Daniel Gros expects large parts of the report to be a sober assessment of the facts. "But then it's all about drawing the conclusions, writing it all down from beginning to end. And this does take a while, since it's not really clear what's really wanted," he said.
Gros says the troika might be internally divided
The IMF, especially, tends to issue harsher verdicts on Greece, as its members - such as some emerging economies or the US - have been eyeing the eurozone with increasing criticism.
Besides, the IMF must defend its reputation as a strict consultant that helps states to straighten out their finances. And with every submitted troika report that is proved wrong, the institution is likely to weaken its credibility.
Waiting out the US elections?
There might, however, yet be another overarching political reason for the delay, according to Jürgen Matthes of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research.
"One assumption out there, which I believe to be politically credible, is that [the troika] wants to wait for the US election to take place," he said. "After all, we've seen how critically the eurozone developments have been watched in the US, and how worried the Obama administration has been that the euro crisis might have negative repercussions for the US economy, eventually costing Obama his re-election."
Speculations about the delayed troika report were also made recently by the Greek government. In a statement not linked with the troika, it announced that Athens would have another two years for reaching its savings target - a deal that the IMF promptly denied.
Matthes thinks the US election could be a reason for the delay
The financial world, meanwhile, has been watching the bargaining
happening in Greece with increasing nervousness. Banks and businesses
want facts, rather than speculation and irritating statements.After all, the troika's final report will play an important part when it comes to deciding whether Greece is to receive the next aid package of over 31 billion euros ($40 billion) from its international lenders. Without it, the country would be facing bankruptcy, which, in turn, would drag the financial markets down and increase pressure on the eurozone as a whole.
More action necessary
That's why Gros believes Greece won't be left out in the cold, adding that he thinks everyone involved will claim to have two loyalties: backing stricter measures against Athens, but at the same time appreciating the efforts the country has already accomplished. "It doesn't make sense to let [Greece] perish now."
Whatever happens, it seems certain that the troika report will conclude that more is still necessary, according to experts. Based on all that is known so far, Greece is, after all, still a long way from meeting the financial targets set as a requirement by its international lenders.
Posted by DW
http://www.dw.de/rumors-abound-over-delayed-troika-report/a-16336624
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